Hazleton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS61 KBGM 251829
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
229 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this afternoon and evening with a few
stronger storms across the Wyoming Valley into the Poconos. High
pressure builds in tonight with widespread fog developing
leading to a dry day for Saturday. Unsettled weather returns
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisories were issued for the Wyoming Valley this
afternoon as 925 mb reanalysis from SPC showed a pocket of dew
points near 70 so day time mixing would likely not bring down
the dew points and observations have shown that the dew points
are actually rising through the morning so heat indexes will
rise to around 100 for the valley there.

With the greater dew points in NEPA, instability has been
building quickly with some of the CAMs increasing Surface based
CAPE to around 3000 to 4000 J/kg though Mixed layer CAPE sticks
to around 1500 J/kg. Still, mid level lapse rates are very poor
for storms, with 5 to 5.5 C/km forecasted through the afternoon.
A healthy looking storm currently moving through the Finger
Lakes into the Southern Tier has only produced a few flashes of
lightning and ZDR columns are not getting much above freezing so
deep updrafts are struggling. As this storm heads into NEPA it
will have a better environment with all the CAPE and shear of 30
to 35 knots so will have to see if the shear can help overcome
the weak lapse rates for strength and organization of the
updraft. Storm chances in NEPA will mostly be between 2 pm and 5
pm as a cold front moves through.

Tonight into tomorrow, with the cold front through, high
pressure builds in. Areas that see rain today will likely see
fog develop tonight into tomorrow morning. The cooler and drier
weather does not last long as ridging is already starting to
build back in tomorrow afternoon with a warm front lifting back
in tomorrow night bringing humidity and thunderstorms back into
the region. With a remnant MCS and potentially an MCV moving
through Saturday night into Sunday morning, chances of
precipitation were kept high. With precipitable water values up
around 1.75 and potentially near 2.0 inches, heavy rain is
likely where storms occur. The probability matched mean 6 hour
QPF does have good chances that areas in the Finger Lakes
through the i-90 corridor could see over an inch of
precipitation with small pockets of 2 to 3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Rain and thunderstorms likely persist into Sunday morning but
chances of precipitation will decrease through the day as a mid
level trough axis moves off to the east and high pressure builds
in. The warm weather returns early next week as a large ridge
of high pressure builds in the Central US. Forecast soundings
have dry air above the boundary layer so dew points were lowered
from the NBM in the afternoons on both Monday and Tuesday but
with highs in the 90s, heat indexes will be back up into the
90s. While models dont show much precipitation or convection
Monday or Tuesday, being on the edge of a strong ridge of high
pressure could lead to convective systems riding around the edge
of the ridge from the northern plains into the northeastern US.
Tuesday is of a more particular concern given forecasted mid
level lapse rates, a piece of an elevated mixed layer could make
it into the Mid Atlantic. If storms are able to fire, they will
be on the stronger side. Also if an MCS is able to develop
Monday night into Tuesday morning in the northern plains or
southern Canada, the storms could propagate along the EML into
the northeast and bring widespread storms with wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term likely remains active as we stay on the northeast
edge of the strong ridge of high pressure keeping us in the
ring of fire. Temperatures remain toasty with dew points
remaining elevated, especially if the ridge can build northeast
more than forecast. If the ridge does end up moving more into
the SW US, then we would be under NW flow with cooler and drier
weather so there is uncertainty in the overall placement of the
strong ridge into late next week.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few scattered showers are moving across the northern counties
this morning, bringing rain showers to SYR and RME. Ceilings are
expected to fall to MVFR/Fuel Alt at these terminals for a few
hours this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR
should return by noon.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late this
morning into the afternoon hours at ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP moving from
NW to SE. TEMPO periods of MVFR conditions are currently
forecast, but brief IFR periods cannot be ruled out of a heavy
downpour moves over the terminal. Showers and storms should be
out of the area by 6pm as high pressure builds in for the
overnight hours. Fog should develop in spots tonight as high
pressure builds in and winds become calm. This will be dependent
on rain where rain falls and if it impacts terminals this
afternoon. Right now, ELM has the best chance for IFR
conditions. Was not confident enough to put IFR at ITH or BGM,
but the possibility of IFR popping up in the early morning
hours is not out of the question.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Occasional restrictions
possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, restrictions from scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...JTC