Hazleton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS61 KBGM 051053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front will produce widespread soaking showers
and possibly a thunderstorm this morning. Locally heavy rainfall
could result in isolated ponding on roads.

2) Behind the front it will be breezy and colder with chances
for mixed rain and snow from this evening through Tuesday.

3) High pressure and drier weather is expected mid-to-late week
with cool mornings and warm afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The well-advertised strong cold front is working its way across
far western NY and western PA early this morning with showers
pushing into the western Finger Lakes and up toward the Tug Hill
region. The SPC meso analysis shows PWATs of 1 to nearly 1.4
inches and strong shear just off the surface as 0 to 1km bulk
shear is shown to be 45 to 50 knots. Winds aloft will continue
to increase early this morning (reaching 50 to 60 knots at
850mb) but with model soundings showing an inversion between
1,000 and 3000 ft above the surface, the strongest winds look to
have a hard time mixing down. However, a soaking rainfall is
still expected as showers spread from west to east this morning
with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm, although instability and
lapse rates are both lacking. Rainfall amounts of about 1/3 to
2/3 of an inch are expected with the highest totals stretching
from the western Mohawk Valley through the Finger Lakes and the
lower end of the range expected to be over NE PA and into the
southern Catskills. Given the high PWAT values, some of the
rainfall can be locally heavy and with the wet antecedent
conditions in place, this could result in some ponding on
roadways and poor-drainage areas. Areas from I-81 on west remain
in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall through 12Z this
morning from WPC.

Both the HRRR and NAMnest seem to be doing a decent job with
regards to timing, placement and intensity of the rainfall thus
far and has the rain clearing the Catskills and NE PA between
17Z-19Z.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, temperatures will
gradually fall this afternoon as the flow becomes northwesterly
and ushers in much colder air. 850mb temperatures fall from
about 5C early this morning to near -10C by early Monday
morning. This combined with strong low and mid-level lapse rates
will be enough to lead to a response off the lakes and the
development of scattered snow or rain/snow showers starting
late this afternoon and evening and continuing through Monday.
Snowfall amounts through Monday morning are expected to be light
ranging from a dusting to perhaps near a half inch in some
places, mainly in higher terrain of CNY. Lows Sunday night range
from the upper 20s to the low 30s. Monday`s highs are expected
to be in the upper 30s and 40s, but the valley areas of NE PA
can reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

A clipper system and supporting upper trough is expected to
move in Monday night into Tuesday, drawing down even colder air
into the region and bring a more widespread round of mainly snow
showers. Tuesday`s highs will be mainly in the 30s, while
overnight lows Tuesday night drop back into the teens and low
20s giving us quite the winter chill stepping out the door early
Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

As the flow aloft becomes more zonal and even features some
slight ridging and high pressure builds in at the surface, drier
conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with moderating
temperatures into late week. High temperatures are expected to
go from the 40s and 50s Wednesday to the 60s area-wide by
Friday. While Wednesday night still looks chilly, overnight lows
return to the 40s Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain has reached the central portion of the forecast area, and
will continue to move eastward as the morning progresses. Rain
should exit the area around noon. Mostly MVFR restrictions
across the terminals this morning, with BGM having IFR ceilings.
AVP may see IFR ceilings as the rain moves through in the next
couple of hours and the winds shift to more SWerly, pushing
valley moisture up to the terminal. BGM and AVP should be MVFR
by late morning and mid afternoon, respectively, as the rain
exits the area. All terminals should climb to VFR by the
afternoon hours.

Lake effect rain showers are expected to develop later this
afternoon, with SYR and RME having the best chance to see
precipitation. MVFR restrictions are forecast to move in later
tonight when ceilings fall and precip changes to snow.


Outlook:

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered rain and snow showers
possible, along with possible restrictions.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...JTC